Recession’s Top Winners and Losers
Fitness clubs predicted to prosper in 2009
As the U.S. economy spirals deeper into an abyss, researcher Ibis World has identified a handful of industries it believes will grow in 2009 and sectors it thinks will suffer (not included are the obvious candidates for “worst year ever”: financial services companies and automakers). “In some cases, being a winner may simply mean that revenue growth expectations have been lowered, yet still remain positive,” says Ibis senior analyst George Van Horn.
1. Corn and soybeans
The biggest component of the U.S. agricultural sector should continue to boom relative to other agricultural products, thanks largely to the growing ethanol business. Biotech companies’ ongoing development of genetically modified corn could also significantly boost production for farmers.
2. Video games
Ibis predicts that consumers will continue to shell out for new video games in 2009, with the U.S. industry expecting to see 12.5% sales growth next year, to $43.8 billion. Major players that should enjoy the good times include Sony (which will release the highly anticipated Killzone 2 for the PlayStation 3), and Microsoft (which plans to release Halo Wars for the Xbox 360).
3. Engine, turbine and power transmission equipment makers
The U.S. market for wind energy is projected to grow by 13.7% in 2009. Export revenue is also forecasted to increase as demand grows in emerging countries.
4. Biotechnology
Growth in biotech should be particularly strong in the agriculture market, where substantially higher prices and increasing demand for commodities will drive sales.
5. Health and fitness clubs
With more people focusing on achieving healthier lifestyles, this industry is expected to increase 2.2% in 2009. As baby boomers pass through their 40s and 50s, health-care costs are forecasted to rise dramatically, creating an incentive for insurers to promote preventive practices – like hitting the gym. Corporate fitness programs are also expected to become more popular, further driving growth in the sector.
6. Meat, beef & poultry processing
This industry accounts for approximately 30% of the U.S. food manufacturing sector and has benefitted from increased production of value-added products that cater to consumers’ changing needs, including ready-to-cook meats, frozen snack products, organic meat and free-range chicken, and premium meats such as Angus beef.
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